Here’s our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news asset prices are still rising even as economic activity slips.
First up, OPEC has revised its forecast for oil demand down, and it forecast of oil supply up. Oddly they don’t see future prices falling however.
US consumer expectations for household spending, household income, and labour market expectations all remain weak compared to the year-ago levels, even if they were slightly better in August than July.
In the Western US, weather conditions are getting even worse for firefighting. This emergency will take a toll on an American economy already struggling with the pandemic.
In China, house prices rose a bit more than expected in August but the gains were relatively modest. Annual gains however are encouraging buyers. The year-on-year range over 70 major cities is from +17% to -3%, but Beijing’s +3.4% is similar to most.
And staying in China, the results of their crackdown on peer-to-peer lenders are in. There are only 15 left of the 5000+ who sprung up in 2017. It is a financial sector ‘innovation’ that quickly ran it course, leaving just a tiny rump.
Around the world, there was a whole set of industrial production data released, and none of it was pretty. The EU said theirs was down -7.7% year-on-year, Japan reported a -15.5% dive, and Hong Kong said their declined -5.1% on that same basis.
On Wall Street today, the S&P500 is up +1.3% in afternoon trade. Overnight, European markets closed mixed in minor gains and losses. Yesterday, Shanghai ended the day up +0.6%, Hong Kong was also up +0.6%, and Tokyo rose +0.7% on the day. The ASX200 ended up +0.7% and the NZX50 Capital Index rose a more modest +0.4%.
The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 29,114,000 and up +283,000 in one day. Global deaths now exceed 926,000 (+5,000).
Just under a quarter of all reported cases globally are in the US, which is up +28,000 to 6,723,000. Their death total is now 198,700 and still rising at about +1000 a day (and now 600/mln. Only Belgium, Spain and the UK are western countries that have a higher death rate).
In Australia, there have now been 26,692 COVID-19 cases reported, and that is only +41 more cases from yesterday and only from Victoria and NSW. Deaths however have now topped 816 (+6). Their recovery rate is up over 88% now.
The UST 10yr yield is marginally softer at just under 0.67%. Their 2-10 rate curve is unchanged at +53 bps, their 1-5 curve is at +12 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is still just over +57 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is up +5 bps at 0.95%. The China Govt 10 year yield is up +2 bps at 3.17%. However, the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is still unchanged at 0.60%.
The price of gold will start today at US$1954/oz which is up +US$14 today. Silver is up proportionally more.
Oil prices will start today at just under US$37.50/bbl in the US while the international price is now just over US$39.50/bbl. These levels just a little lower than yesterday.
The Kiwi dollar will start today at 67.1 USc and nearly a +½c firming from this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are up a full +½c at 92 AUc. Against the euro we are also firmer at 56.6 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is now at 70.
The bitcoin price is also higher today, now at US$10,705 and that is a gain of +4.0% since this time yesterday. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».